2018 has indeed been a rather sad year for equity related investments. The indices by themselves have given poor returns, the broader markets have under-performed more significantly and select stocks have really tanked in a brutal manner. However, people investing in equity for a long time, such as me, can take this in their stride knowing that a good year in 2019 or after can redress this to some extent.
There is however, another issue which many of us miss badly. Not only have equity returns plummeted, Debt returns have gone south too. Let us look at some data for the best performing funds in different categories to first understand the factual context :-
- For long term Debt funds the best one year returns are between 2.6 % and 3.5 %.
- For same category 3 year returns are between 6.5 % and 7.1 %. Returns for 5 years range between 7.9 % and 9.1 %.
- For short term Debt funds the best one year returns are between 5.9 % and 6.2 %.
- For same category 3 year returns are between 7.3 % and 7.6 %. Returns for 5 years range between 8.4 % and 8.7 %.
So what does this mean in real terms to an investor who has parked some of his money in Debt funds as part of his asset allocation? Firstly, while the 5 year returns still look good for the best performing Debt funds, these will now start to get impacted by the poor current performance. Secondly, if you are parking your money for 2-3 years then Long term Debt funds are a really bad idea, you might as well keep your money in FD or Post office. Thirdly, if you are looking at some regular income and had assumed you will get 8 % every year, you really need to rethink your strategy.
How dramatic has been the change over the last 5 years or so? Let me illustrate this by a personal example. As many of you know, I have substantial investments in FMP type of products as I like the relative stability they bring to expected returns. As and when they get redeemed, I reinvest the Principal and use the capital gains for my regular expenses in my current FI state. Now look at the following data :-
- Recently there was a redemption of an FMP – ICICI Capital protection plan, where I had invested 2 lacs. This was a 5 year plan.
- Yesterday I received 3.21 lacs for it and the XIRR was 9.93 % over the 5 year period.
- An exactly similar scheme I had invested in December 2016 now has an XIRR of 5.26 % only.
It will be obvious from the above that the first investment suited my situation perfectly and the second is really not doing so. As I had said earlier, dramatic recovery from this 5.26 % XIRR is unlikely. At best I can hope for is 6 % or so and this will hardly be very worthwhile, given the lock-in period of 3 years plus.
So the question remains as to where should one put his or her money? More specifically for me, where should I put my 2 lacs now? Actually, it is about 3 lacs as I do not really need the capital gains amount for my regular expenditure.
I will try to address this in the next post.