Take stock of your life in the post Covid world

From time to time I get people requesting me to help them in Financial planning or to review their existing portfolios. While this is an important exercise by itself, I have always felt that it is a bit analogous to putting the cart before the horse. Finances support your life decisions and activities by allowing you to do the things you want to do in life. They do not, cannot and should not determine how you lead your life. A lot has changed for the world and India in the last 3 months and life, as we know it, will be very different from now on. In the changed context, my suggestion is that you take stock of your life first and then worry about the finances.

So how do you take stock of your life? Well, there can be several ways to do it and I have one which is my favorite. You need to look at a few important dimensions in order to decide how things are going. In each of these dimensions there are some key questions you need to be asking yourself. These questions will differ from one individual to another but I have given some examples that may help you form your questions. So here is how I would take stock of my life in any new year :-

  • My work and profession
    • Is my current work aligned to my overall goals in life?
    • Am I happy with work content, work relationships and benefits?
    • Is my work helping me to create value and is intellectually satisfying?
    • Does it help in letting me lead my life well in terms of work-life balance?
    • Do I really grow every year as a professional and as a person with it?
    • Is there a case for considering a change in my current work or profession?
  • My family and friends
    • Am I happy with the situation my family is in today?
    • Are all members clear of their goals in life and working towards it?
    • Am I able to influence and add value to their goal achievement?
    • Do I have the financial bandwidth to cater for their goals?
    • Are relationships within my family functional or dysfunctional?
    • Are we able to spend family time in vacations and other activities?
    • Are we able to achieve the difficult balance between space and togetherness?
    • Are all the members clear about important information in family matters?
    • Each year, is there a sense of progress and optimism?
    • If I repeated these above questions for my close friends how will the answers be?
  • My contribution to society
    • Do I have intrinsic value that can be contributed in a positive way to society?
    • Am I doing enough to utilize my value proposition above?
    • Do I contribute to some charities to the extent that I can afford?
    • Am I involved in any community activities in a positive way?
    • Do I donate blood every year and have I predged my organs after my death?
    • Am I a role model to my children for them to become responsible citizens?
    • Do I consciously make an effort to vote in every election?
    • Do I use every public space or utility consciously and leave it in better state?
  • Me as a person
    • Am I taking care of my health today to avoid problems of the future?
    • Do I exercise regularly and is there a need to make changes in that?
    • Do I strike a balance between work productivity and leisure time?
    • Am I able to spend time on the things I really enjoy doing?
    • Do I have a clear vision of the short term and medium term future?
    • Do I have long term goals and am I working towards them?

When you are doing this, do not attempt to rush through. Sit with a cup of coffee or whichever drink you prefer, think deeply through the questions and be brutally honest. Remember the questions have binary answers and if it is not a convincing YES then it has to be a NO. Give yourself 1 mark for every YES and 0 for every NO. In the end see how much have you scored out of 30?

What is a good score in this? Well an overall score of 25 or so will indicate that you are doing great in life and things can hardly be better, 20 will mean that there are several areas you need to improve and less than that will mean you have real issues and need to look at serious changes in 2020 and beyond. While you may want to deal with it yourself and many do have the ability, there is no reason to feel awkward about getting support from your family, friends, boss at work etc to make some important changes.

How can I help in this? Well this is an area where I can add value as an individual and have already done it for some people. I do a program called HELP ( Holistic Engagement for Life Planning ) that looks into life situation, changes envisaged and a way to go for them. It does have a financial planning component to ensure that such life choices can be sustainable. In case you are interested, reach out to me. I hope you understand this is a serious and time consuming exercise and is obviously a paid one 🙂

Wishing all my readers a stable 2020, where you must look to survive and sustain. Growth and thriving can honestly wait for another day!!

How the financial planners got it wrong for you?

Over the last one month I have got several messages from readers of this blog and people I know otherwise as to how their financial plan have gone totally wrong just in the space of a few trading sessions. Most people are shell shocked and are wondering how the basic strategy of SIP which was seemingly invincible has shattered so completely. While I agree that the current sell off is something no one could possibly have anticipated, the seeds of such a risky financial planning was sown much earlier through the SIP route.

The last time the stock markets in India went for a roller coaster ride was in the years 2008 through 2010 but not too many of the current investors were investing then. The whole idea of financial planning through SIP was started in full force after the 2008 January market crash. Investment in MF through SIP was touted as a big thing for planning your finances in order to meet long term goals of individuals. In the initial days SIP was promoted by many financial planners as a reverse EMI, only something that helped you build a financial asset as opposed to a home etc. The reason it became a huge success was the secular bull run that our markets had till very recently. Yes, there were many times when short term corrections were there but these were seen as opportunities to invest more in the markets.

Once the markets kept rising after 2010, the early adaptors of SIP saw great gains on their early investments and word of mouth advertisement along with the proliferation of MF agents with aggressive sales tactics ensured that it became the default choice of all the people coming into the workforce. Over the years the myth got propagated that SIP was almost like an investment in a bank FD only with a return of 12 % or more !! The investors lost sight of the risks that are part and parcel of every market. This was almost like an accident waiting to happen and it did, only the scale of it was swift and brutal. The plan of the financial planners was quite a good one, insomuch as investment in equity as an asset class for the long term is quite inevitable in a high inflation economy that we are. The error of judgement on their part is to get overly greedy and recommend that almost all investible surplus be put into equity. Investors not only kept increasing their SIP amounts but some also went into direct equity without knowing a great deal about the market and not having enough time to do adequate research.

The situation could have had a much better outcome had asset allocation been followed properly and people had 40 % of their assets in various debt instruments. Sadly, PPF and other small savings schemes were seen as stodgy and boring and even if some investors did go for debt, their choices were types such as the Credit risk funds etc which had their own problems too. The overall impact today is that the XIRR of a 10 year SIP is lower than those of PPF returns. Yes, this will become better over a period of time but a lot of the gains over the last few years have now been frittered away.

A lot of people who are readers of the blog have wanted me to advice them as to what they should do now? I am happy to answer any specific queries that you have, feel free to send it to me here or in the Facebook group. Some of you have also wanted to know if I can provide my HELP services to them. As I have said before, I do this only for a few people but in the current situation I am happy to take on a few more people. You can read about HELP program here and understand about the work I have done so far here. The people wanting to interact with me can mail me at rajshekhar_roy@yahoo.co.uk

Watch out this space for my next posts which will contain more action plans as to how you can deal with your personal finance issues now.

Personal finance has not seen such tough times before in India

These are very tough times for the whole world and especially for India. Over the last 5 weeks or so, I have been putting off writing any blog posts as I was waiting for the market to stabilize. However, the way things have been going on, that does not look to be anywhere in sight. I have also got several requests from people wanting me to write a few posts and have therefore decided to honor those requests.

To begin with it is important to understand that the situation we see today is unprecedented in the personal finance space. I have been investing for myself over 3 decades now, having started in 1988 when I joined my first job after having finished my MBA from IIM Calcutta. In this long journey there have been several ups and downs that have taken place including years such as 1990, 2001, 2008 – 2010 where the stock markets have gone through a roller coaster ride. In most of the cases the markets have bounced back over a period of time and the maxim that over a medium or long term the markets will mitigate the risks have always worked out well. Even this time many financial planners and MF houses are trying to assure investors with these same words. I am sorry to say otherwise, but the current situation will not see any quick turnaround and people thinking it will be business as usual soon, are clearly not understanding the impact.

Let me try and explain in a few points why I think so :-

  • The Covid-19 impact is worldwide and it is long term. Given the current context of losses of lives throughout the globe, the last thing countries are thinking of is business. Any return to normalcy cannot be expected unless the infections cease to occur and that seems to be 3-6 months away even as per the optimistic estimates.
  • The current problem in India is on all fronts – with MSME companies, with larger units, with migrant laborers, with exports, with manufacturing, with services etc. In short all aspects of demand and supply are affected adversely in the current situation. Also remember that we were hardly doing very well prior to the lockdown.
  • The deep cuts suffered by the indices and all kinds of stocks are actually just the tip of the iceberg. I am convinced there is more pain left in the markets yet and, what is more, I see no real possibility of the markets coming back to February 2020 levels in the next 2 years or so. It will be nice if it happens but chances are remote.
  • India will need to spend significantly to counter the effects of the virus, in supporting the jobless people through cash and kind, in providing incentives and support to the industry to be back on its feet. Our production capacity as well as demand has been seriously compromised and even if the virus goes away in the next month, it will take us more than a year to get back where we were. So in effect, the whole financial year is kind of lost to the virus if we are lucky. If we are not lucky then it can well be one more year or even worse.
  • I will specifically write about personal finance investments in terms of equity and debt asset classes, but I hope the above has given you an idea about why I feel the situation will not improve in the short run.

A lot of people who are readers of the blog have wanted me to advice them as to what they should do now? I am happy to answer any specific queries that you have, feel free to send it to me here or in the Facebook group. Some of you have also wanted to know if I can provide my HELP services to them. As I have said before, I do this only for a few people but in the current situation I am happy to take on a few more people. You can read about HELP program here and understand about the work I have done so far here. The people wanting to interact with me can mail me at rajshekhar_roy@yahoo.co.uk

Watch out this space for my next posts which will contain more action plans as to how you can deal with your personal finance issues now.

Some crystal ball gazing for 2020

Given the lackadaisical performance of our markets in 2019, a lot of people who are connected with it directly or indirectly are hoping for 2020 to be a much better year. Let me try and do some crystal ball gazing to speculate how the year might pan out. 

To begin with, it is important to understand that the global situation is really facing a lot of headwinds in economic terms and the cutrrent events unfolding are unlikely to change this any time soon. A lot of the global growth depends on countries such as US, China, Japan etc and the current context in this is not reassuring at all. In US, the impending impeachment of Trump is likely to cause a lot of friction and instability, the US-China trade talks are at best a patchwork, demand situation in any of these countries is also a cause for worry. The US stock markets however, are doing quite well compared to many others and this has caused money to flow into them. This really is a double whammy – countries such as India suffer from the negative situation in the US in terms of sentiment and also get impacted adversely as there is less FII money available. On top of these issues such as buying oil from Iran, the situation in Kashmir has caused a certain amount of cooling off between India and US which affects exports considerably.

For India though, the domestic situation is a far greater concern as compared to the international one. The implicit assumption last year was that a victory of the BJP led NDA will act as a tonic for the beleaguered markets and things would go well from there on. In practice the aggressive posturing by the BJP on a variety of issues, their inability to form the government in Maharashtra, loss in Jharkhand, continuing slide of the economy in terms of the IIP and GDP numbers have managed to create an uncertain situation and as we all know the markets do not like uncertainty. BJP presented 2 budgets in 2019 and both lacked direction and were completely unimaginative as far as growth was concerned. Yes, the current Finance minister did try and correct this by taking some measures when the market slide was unabated, and this has helped in recovery of the headline indices. In my opinion though this was too little and definitely too late.

Some of you may ask as to whether I am being unduly negative when the markets are at their life time highs. The point is the NIFTY and Sensex numbers are due to money being pumped into a few companies. The broader markets have remained pretty much where they were earlier and stocks like Yes Bank been beaten down so badly on price is an indication of lack of investor confidence. I see two real issues connected to each other in a very direct way. Firstly consumer confidence is at the lowest for a long time now and secondly this has resulted in consumption not picking up. A direct result is the earning growth of companies is muted and companies are reluctant to invest, even when they now have some unexpected extra money due to the cortprate tax cuts. Finally for all those who are saying that our indices should cause a cheer or two, look at the following data point. In 12 years from 2008 to 2020 January, NIFTY has gone from 6000 to 12000 levels. That is an annual return of 6 % and your money in a bank FD would have earned as much, definitely a lot more in instruments such as PPF.

All right, enough of the doom and gloom then, let us look forward. In terms of politics, though the BJP is well entrenched in the centre, they are losing the states and an united opposition poses a significant challenge in these elections. This may well cause the BJP to adopt more populist measures at the cost of fiscal prudence and this will have long term negative effects for the economy. In the short run though measures such as income tax cuts, reversal or reduction of LTCG taxes, lowered petrol prices will definitely help boost consumer confidence and hopefully also help in kickstarting the consumption demand. I see this happening in the second quarter of 2020 and the markets may well anticipate this and start rising in the early part of 2020 post the budget. If the cycle of events play out as expected and corporate earning growth is a reality finally, the market growth will also be sustained. I think this is possible if things are handled well from here on.

So finally for the predictions then – I think Nifty will be in the range of 12000 to 12500 till the budget and may well scale 13000 by June or so. From then the paths can be both choppy and uncertain – there is a possibility of reaching 14000 by December if all goes well but a more likely figure will be 13600 or so. However, if things go wrong it is quite easy to see Nifty back in the sub 13000 range, may be even lower than 12500. I think the first scenario will hold and am hoping for it too 🙂

What will be the impact on the investments and what should be the choices in 2020? Let me try and do a post on this tomorrow.

Society, Economy, Politics -how will markets react now ?

India of 2018 is a very interesting case study of contradictions in many ways. We have a government that was taken to be long term, at least till 2024, but with the election results this week it is clearly under siege. We have an opposition buoyed and flush with the recent electoral success but pulling in too many directions that may militate against it mounting an effective challenge. We are the fastest growing large economy in the world but our GDP growth rate is again under pressure. With so many things happening in the society, economy and politics, how are our markets likely to react?

Let us take society first – it is easy to see that we live in deeply divided times. The fault lines between different parts of our society is very clear. In terms of religion, the division is wide among Hindus and Muslims with both feeling they are hard done by. The non decision by the courts on the Ram temple issue has clearly caused a deeper divide and is like a festering wound that is now taking a heavy toll on communal harmony. The cow slaughter issue is central to a lot of disharmony and is not being handled properly by the governments. People today lack faith in law and order and are increasing taking the law into their own hands as evidenced by the spate of lynchings across the country, the latest being the sad death of a policeman. Religion is only one side of the coin though, caste is the other. Even today the dalits are treated atrociously in India and that is a great shame. As they get better educated and relatively improve their economic state, they are becoming more assertive, obviously to the chagrin of the upper castes. In general the society is also high on aspiration, education and jobs being the prime drivers. Sadly there is a clear disconnect between them and a lot of educated youth are not finding any avenues to use that education. Changes must be brought through an entrepreneurial revolution but even with government financing the success here is mixed as yet. This is leading to increased demand of more and more reservations, which obviously is not a solution. The societal disparities are also staggering and while the overall per-capita income and living standards rise have reduced poverty, the difference in how the various classes of society lives is mind boggling. All of these create a society in constant tension, reflected by so many unsavory incidents we get to hear of almost daily.

Coming to the economy, agrarian distress is definitely a cause for great concern. A lot of people even today depend on agriculture in our country and the reality is it is virtually impossible to make a living out of it, unless things are changed drastically. Elimination of middlemen and focusing on streamlining of the supply chain is the need of the hour but the vested interests are way too strong for it to get done easily. The focus therefore wrongly shifts to loan waivers which is akin to applying balm when you really need surgery. GST has been a much needed tax reform but the implications of it are that people need to pay taxes honestly after declaring their incomes – again something that most Indians are wont to do. It has to be accepted now that demonetization had a lot of short term pain for the economy and people, it unfortunately was also not followed up properly to get the tax windfall that was quite possible to achieve. Our GDP growth could easily have hit 8 % but for this step and the country is paying a heavy price for it. The tax system has really had no reforms other than the GST and compliance, though improved, have not really led to any game changing tax collection buoyancy. Finally, corporate earnings are still languishing and do not enthuse the markets. So if you had to evaluate the overall economy over the last 4 years, you will probably see a lot of long term initiatives but no great short term performance.

What of politics then? Well, about a year back BJP pretty much ruled most of India and it was a foregone conclusion that they will come back to power in 2019. However, the scene has changed rather dramatically in the last few months culminating in the Congress win of 3 states. BJP or NDA might still come back to power but it will be a tough battle and one they may well lose too. In democracy that is not an issue but the two opposing sides are so bitterly opposed to each other that any change of government will create a fair bit of upheaval throughout the country. Turbulent times ahead as the opposition will seek to hammer home the advantage they have got and BJP will try to take initiatives to win back the goodwill of people.

How will the markets take in all this? To begin with the markets have taken the BJP losses rather well as they were probably factored in. Over the last year the indices have not really gone anywhere, the mid caps and the small caps having taken the biggest hits. FII participation has been lukewarm at best and looks to continue in the same vein with other markets looking more attractive than India. SIP money coming in regularly into the markets courtesy retail participation has been a saving grace for the markets this year and this may well continue. As I see it the markets will take a pause for now and Nifty will be range bound between 10400 and 10800, maybe touching 11000 on the upper end. By the time we get into the budget exercise the markets will react one way or the other. BJP will be forced to take populist measures and this may cause markets to react negatively. My sense is that Nifty can get down to 9500 or so at the lower end and is unlikely to cross 11000 at the upper end. This will hold true till May, unless the budget is significantly positive for corporate India. The other aspect is of course the annual results and earning growth which is unlikely to be very enthusing. Beyond the May 2019 elections, markets will rise as long as there is a stable government.

So what should you do about your investments then? I will write about it in the next post.

 

The levels of Indices tell a story now

I have been away from the blog for a week now owing to a travel to Mauritius. It was nice to see that the blog had good readership even in the absence of any posts from my side and that I got several requests to post something on current market situation.

Of course, while I have been away from writing posts in the blog, I have not been away from the markets. In the present state of financial independence, the markets are quite important to me and, despite my significant experience with them, it will really not be very true to say that the volatility has not really caused any anxieties in me. Of late the indices have plummeted again after a good recovery where both Nifty and Sensex had reached their life time highs. Does this mean the recovery is over and we are back in a bear market? The short answer to this question is No. For the long answer, let us look at the levels of indices.

I will look at Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 as these will give us a very good view of the overall market. Thanks to SEBI, the definitions are now quite clear and investors can invest in both stocks and MF with a lot more clarity than before. 

What is Nifty telling us based on current levels and DMA?

  • Closing value today is 10967, about  800 points shy of lifetime high. Note that the lifetime high was achieved in the previous month itself.
  • YTD returns as well as returns for all periods up to 3 years are positive, except the 1 month period. The range is 9.7 % for 6 months and 39 % for 3 years. For 1 month it is -3.7 %.
  • Current level of Nifty is well below 30, 50 DMA and just more than 150 and 200 DMA.
  • Based on this I predict that Nifty still has some downside left and can well go to earlier territory of 10500 or so in the near run.
  • However, it is likely to get support thereafter and be range bound between 10500 and 10800.
  • Unless some out of the way good news is there on the political or economic front, I do not see it going above 11000.
  • If BJP loses the upcoming state elections then a drop to 9500 or so cannot be ruled out.

What is Nifty Midcap 100 telling us based on current levels and DMA?

  • Closing value today is 17847, just above 52 week low of 17430, and well below the lifetime high of 21840.
  • YTD returns and returns for other periods in this year are negative. 1 year return is also negative at -3.1 % while 3 year returns are nearly 43 %.
  • Current level of Nifty Midcap 100 is significantly lower  than 30, 50 and 150 and 200 DMA. 
  • Based on this I predict that Nifty Midcap 100 still has some downside left and can well go to 17500 or so in the next 1 month.
  • However, it is likely to find support thereafter and be range bound between 17500 and 18500.
  • Unless some out of the way good news is there on the political or economic front, I do not see it going above 19000.
  • If BJP loses the upcoming state elections then a drop to 17000 or so cannot be ruled out as it will very likely breach the 52 week low levels.

What is Nifty Smallcap 100 telling us based on current levels and DMA?

  • Closing value today is 6722, just above 52 week low of 6644, but well below the lifetime high of 9656.
  • YTD returns and returns for other periods in this year are negative. 1 year return is – 13.3 % while 3 year returns are nearly 33 %.
  • Current level of Nifty Smallcap 100 is significantly lower  than 30, 50 ,150 and 200 DMA. 
  • Based on this I predict that Nifty Smallcap 100 still has some downside left and can well go to 6300 or so in the next 1 month.
  • However, it is likely to rebound thereafter and be range bound between 6800 and 7500.
  • Unless some out of the way good news is there on the political or economic front, I do not see it going above 8000.
  • If BJP loses the upcoming state elections then a drop to 6000 or so cannot be ruled out as it will very likely breach the 52 week low levels.

So what does all this mean for your investments and how should you tackle your existing MF portfolio? Well, this post is already quite long, let me address that in the next post.

Some crystal ball gazing for the next year

If you are an Indian then you are probably seized of the importance that the next 12 months, or even 11, have in store for the country. It is not easy to predict the outcomes in different aspects of life as much of these issues are quite complex in nature. However, it will be safe to say that whatever the outcomes, they are likely to change things for the country in a significant manner. In this post, I will try to do some crystal ball gazing into 4 important areas, namely Society, Politics, Economy and Markets.

Let us look at society first and, I think most of us will agree that we live in very divisive times today. Whether it is division along class lines or on community lines, there is a lot of basic mistrust that people have for each other today. This is manifested in the bitter invective political parties come up with, in communal skirmishes in several parts of India, lynchings on suspicion of kidnapping children and so on. The law and order machinery has pretty much broken down with rapes, assault and mob lynchings being a daily occurrence, as opposed to the exception they used to be earlier. The society is also divided along class lines – industrialists perpetrating big financial frauds on the banks seem to get away, while indigent farmers have to commit suicide as they are not able to pay small loans back to the banks. Nothing seems to be sacred any more – army men are pelted with stones, anti national slogans are shouted in the name of freedom and people cynically debate as to whether one needs to stand up to the national anthem.

Unfortunately, over the next 11 months or so I think the society is going to get more polarised along communal, caste and class lines. With the BJP in power, the right wing fringe groups have got emboldened and violence has become a way of life for both these people and the ones they oppose. For the political parties a divisive agenda is the only way to bring out a good electoral outcome and they will not do anything else. The court judgement on the Ram Mandir issue will add to the polarised atmosphere of the country and the movement towards an Uniform Civil Code will heighten communal tensions. The only way is to tighten law and order by being tough to all perpetrators of crime, without fear or favour. However, in an election year that will never really happen.

Politics is, of course, at the core of everything that is happening in our society today. For both BJP and the opposition the 2019 elections will be a game changing one. When BJP lost unexpectedly in 2004, it took them 10 years to come back in power, even though the UPA ran a shoddy and corrupt government. The opposition knows they have been lucky not to have their misdeeds exposed and judged in the current term of the government, but their luck will not hold if BJP gets another term. With this backdrop both sides will do everything possible, both fair and foul, to win at all costs. The by poll results have shown that if the opposition comes together, it is tough for the BJP to win in today’s scenario. However, a lot of this can change in the next 11 months, BJP will hope it does.

My assessment is that the opposition will never agree to the simultaneous election idea that BJP is so keen on. Congress knows that it has chances in MP and Chattishgarh, with Rajasthan almost certainly going to them. It therefore makes sense for them to show BJP on a losing wicket when it goes for the Lok sabha elections. The only way BJP has out of this is to hold elections in January or so and get these 3 states as well as Andhra Pradesh and Telangana clubbed. This has a definite element of risk as Bajpayee had found out in 2004 and many in the BJP will remember that lesson. In any case, BJP will probably have to bite the proverbial bullet as the alternative is certainly worse. Whichever way it decides to go, I cannot see it getting anything more than 250 and anything less than 200 seats. If it is the former then there will be enough parties who will tag along for them to form a government. However, anything less than 230 will really mean a Karnataka like situation where everyone will come together to keep the BJP from power. I think 250 is a possibility but for that to happen large sections of the society will need to support the BJP as they did in 2014 – the health program, MSP pricing, Kashmir having President’s rule, possible solution to Ram Mandir are all geared towards this.

What of the economy then? It is now clear that the corporate results are on the way up, though in a slow trajectory. The tax collections are fairly robust and the initial glitches with GST are improving now. Good measures like the bankruptcy code and declaring absconders as fugitives will make sure that people do not take banks for a ride. However, the expenses of the exchequer have increased manifold due to the Universal health scheme as well as the MSP increases. This, along with the refusal to reduce taxes on Petrol/ Diesel will unfortunately create an inflationary impact in the economy. The RBI may well be forced to increase the interest rates and coupled with the depreciating Rupee against the US Dollar, there is a good chance that the economic recovery might get stymied. The government is hoping that the effects of this will be only visible after the elections but people who know will be able to see this portent quite clearly.

Finally, how will the markets fare in all of these. Right now, I see the Nifty being in a range of 10000 to 10800, with a possible negative bias. If elections are held separately and BJP loses the assemblies then a fall to 9000 and below is quite feasible. In the event of BJP losing in the Lok Sabha and being unable to form the government, a 20-25 % downside from the 10000 figure is reasonable to expect. On the other hand the relief will be palpable if BJP somehow comes back to power and a rally to 11000 plus, maybe nearing 12000 can be expected.

So there you have it – a swing of 8000 to 12000 is possible. This is the kind of excitement that many expert investors seek in the markets in order to make money. For most of us though, such volatility is really not desirable. How should they deal with their investments in this turbulent period?

I will write about investor strategies in the next few posts.