The liquidity driven rally in the indices and several stocks has been the flavor of this monsoon season. In the beginning of this financial year the opinion of most analysts were that there can be a possible correction and the Nifty would probably settle in the range of 7700 to 8200 over a period of 4 months. Thereafter things would be taken care by the first quarter results. Indeed when the markets started to rally and crossed the 8200 levels with relative ease, the consensus was that the corporate earning would justify the rise.
Now that several companies have declared their results for the first quarter, it can be safely said that the results have been a mixed bag and there is nothing really in them to indicate strongly that the lacklustre showing of corporate results are a thing of the past. In fact while the Auto companies and several banks have shown encouraging results many other sectors have been clearly disappointing – IT, Aviation and FMCG to name a few. So what does this portend for our markets, the Nifty in particular?
For starters, there are really no immediate triggers left for the markets. Both the GST and the good monsoons have largely been factored in the rally which we have witnessed in the past few months. In any event, the actual impact of these will not be felt in the Q2 results. Given this situation it is kind of tough to see Nifty getting a serious lift from the present levels. Yes, the liquidity factor along with some other good news can push it to near 9000 levels but it will be very difficult for it to sustain it there. In simple terms, I think that there is a far greater case for a Nifty downside to 8200 and below in the next 2 months as opposed to an up move to 9000 levels. In this context, does it make sense for an investor to sell off his equity holdings partially and enter later at lower levels?
People who are holding a direct stocks portfolio will be familiar with this simple mechanism. You can move out of a stock at a level where you feel there is unlikely to be any more upside in the short run. Over a period of time you can decide at what level would you like to re-enter the stock. At the very least you would try to add to the stock at certain lower levels, even if you do not book profits. Of course, this requires a deeper understanding than just looking at Nifty levels but the rewards can really be stupendous. There are people who sold Maruti at 4600 last year and then bought it back around 3500, to now see it climb back to 4700 again. If you owned even 100 shares of Maruti, this strategy would have given you a cool tax free profit of 1.2 lacs.
What about MF in that case? Most investors who are into SIP are led to believe that they should adopt the Hero Honda strategy of, “fill it, shut it, forget it”. But in reality is this a good idea? Like in the case of Maruti stock, will you be leaving a lot of money in the table if the Nifty really goes down rapidly from here and your MF scheme NAV declines alarmingly. At some level, your fund manager is taking care of this but it will do no harm to take an active stance in this as well. Many investors have investments of 3-5 lacs in an MF scheme. Even a 10 % drop in the Nifty levels will mean significant amounts of money. Remember, this is clearly like a tax free bonanza that you can use for many of your discretionary expenses and even for additional expenses if you so desire.
More importantly, many of us have collected stocks and MF schemes over a long period of time. These do not fit into our current plans very well but we may have been too lazy to sell them or have not found it worthwhile. With the market levels being where they are for all types of indices, it may be a pretty good idea to sell some of these. You can channelise the money into your current portfolio depending on the right market levels. Also, if you are stuck with a long standing SIP in a fund which you do not like any more, this will be the perfect opportunity to get out of it lock, stock and barrel.
Is there a risk that Nifty can just go up unidirectional and well past 9000? I do not think so and even if it does, it will come down at some point. Remember you will be holding cash and that is also an asset.
In the next post, I will outline how I want to adopt this strategy for my own investments.